Model CLV — Aggregate Audit

Per-sport closing-line-value audit on the platform's recommended picks. CLV = closing price − the price we took, raw implied on both sides. The model is not in that formula, which is what makes it a test rather than a restatement of our own opinion. Positive mean CLV means our picks consistently beat the close, the standard proxy for sharp skill.

-2.54pp
Our picks are not beating the closing line.
Mean closing-line value across 13,648 recommended picks. We got a better price than the close on 29.8% of them.

When we like a side, the price tends to move against us before the game starts. That is the earliest sign a pick was wrong, and it shows up long before results do.

Minimum before we sell picks +0.00pp Target +1.00pp Short of target by 3.54pp
Window:
30 days 90 days All time
View:
Per sport By sport + bet type
Methodology: CLV computed at game settlement against closing line (Pinnacle preferred, falls through to best-priced sharp book). Buckets with N<30 hidden until threshold met. Backfilled via OddsAPI historical-markets API; capture rate 84.3% (was 40.5% before 2026-05-10 fix).
Model CLV by sport and bet type.
Sport Bet type N Mean CLV Median CLV % beating close
AMERICANFOOTBALL_NFL moneyline 32 +0.13pp +0.00pp 37.5%
BUNDESLIGA moneyline 163 +0.46pp +0.00pp 41.1%
BUNDESLIGA over_under 38 -1.85pp -1.19pp 28.9%
CRICKET_IPL moneyline 85 -0.48pp +0.00pp 37.6%
EPL moneyline 190 -1.08pp -0.68pp 30.5%
EPL over_under 84 -4.13pp -2.93pp 22.6%
EPL spread 47 -4.20pp -3.33pp 27.7%
LALIGA moneyline 240 -1.87pp -1.00pp 28.7%
LALIGA over_under 46 -2.47pp +0.00pp 41.3%
LALIGA spread 35 -5.28pp -2.38pp 20.0%
LIGUE1 moneyline 83 -1.95pp +0.00pp 31.3%
MLB moneyline 3,371 -1.02pp -0.40pp 30.5%
MLB over_under 1,020 -9.76pp -1.89pp 22.9%
MLB spread 1,434 -8.07pp -3.69pp 19.5%
MMA_MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS moneyline 690 -3.79pp +0.00pp 37.4%
MMA_MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS over_under 135 -2.77pp -1.32pp 20.0%
NBA moneyline 539 -0.29pp +0.00pp 38.0%
NBA over_under 44 -2.29pp -0.12pp 29.5%
NBA spread 37 -1.69pp -0.24pp 24.3%
NCAAB moneyline 148 +0.43pp +0.00pp 44.6%
NCAAF moneyline 119 -0.16pp +0.00pp 3.4%
NCAAF over_under 130 -0.12pp +0.00pp 0.0%
NCAAF spread 127 -0.16pp +0.00pp 1.6%
NFL_PRESEASON moneyline 51 +1.95pp +2.72pp 68.6%
NFL_PRESEASON over_under 50 -0.01pp +0.00pp 2.0%
NFL_PRESEASON spread 46 +0.06pp +0.00pp 6.5%
NHL moneyline 537 -1.00pp +0.00pp 31.7%
NHL over_under 151 -1.54pp +0.00pp 48.3%
NHL spread 187 +0.77pp +0.24pp 51.3%
SERIEA moneyline 214 -1.30pp -0.75pp 31.3%
SERIEA over_under 71 -2.56pp -2.44pp 16.9%
TENNIS_ATP moneyline 1,593 -0.86pp +0.00pp 36.2%
TENNIS_WTA moneyline 1,591 -1.36pp -0.25pp 30.7%
UCL moneyline 52 +5.22pp -0.73pp 32.7%
UCL over_under 30 -2.53pp -1.42pp 40.0%

Cumulative-mean CLV trajectory

cumulative mean CLV (pp) · N=13648-2.54pp

What we are doing about it

A number like the one above is worth little without the response to it, so here is ours, and the figure that will show whether it worked.

  1. Narrow to where we are least behind. CLV is not evenly bad. Moneyline runs far closer to the line than spreads and totals, and one sport carries both our largest sample and our worst number. Coverage follows the evidence rather than the calendar.
  2. Pull the model toward the market where it disagrees most. In the band where our probability departs furthest from the closing price, the market has been the better estimator. That is a calibration problem with a known direction, not a mystery.
  3. Fix the instrument before trusting it. Some of what this page measured was measurement error, found and corrected in September 2026. Numbers here predate and postdate those fixes; the trajectory below is the honest view.

The test: mean CLV on the picks we recommend, non-negative at 95% confidence. Until it clears that bar we are not selling picks — and this page will keep saying so.

See /trust for live calibration buckets across sports and /methodology for the signal pipeline behind each pick.