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NBA Trust Dashboard

Current NBA pricing status: display-only

NBA picks are shown for information only until the calibration checks below pass and a person has reviewed them. Only then does NBA EV go live.

Playoff Cohort (window opens 2026-04-12)
Picks: 321 · Brier: 0.2181 vs market 0.2146 (lift +0.0034; model worse )

Overall Calibration (all settled NBA picks)

N: 657 · Model Brier: 0.2268 · Market Brier: 0.1812 · Brier lift: +0.0455 (model worse)

Calibration by probability bucket (5pp width)

NBA calibration by predicted-probability bucket.
Bucket	N	Predicted mean	Actual rate	Gap (pp)	Tripwire
0.50–0.55	100	0.526	0.620	+9.42	yellow
0.55–0.60	81	0.574	0.593	+1.84	green
0.60–0.65	84	0.626	0.571	-5.44	yellow
0.65–0.70	194	0.677	0.593	-8.38	yellow
0.70–0.75	171	0.720	0.731	+1.05	green
0.75–0.80	11	0.773	1.000	+22.71	yellow (thin sample)
0.80–0.85	5	0.818	1.000	+18.16	yellow (thin sample)
0.85–0.90	6	0.868	0.667	-20.13	yellow (thin sample)

How each probability bucket is flagged:

green — |gap| < 5.0pp (in calibration)
yellow — 5.0pp ≤ |gap| < 10.0pp (watch)
red — |gap| ≥ 10.0pp AND N ≥ 30 (action required)
yellow (thin sample) — large gap but N < 30 (more samples needed)

What has to hold before NBA EV goes live (all three):

N ≥ 200 settled NBA picks
Model Brier ≤ market Brier + 0.005 (the model no worse than the market beyond noise)
Zero red buckets across the 0.50–0.95 probability range

Calibration uses every settled NBA pick. Model Brier scores the model's probability against the result; market Brier scores the no-vig market price on the same picks.