← Back to the board Trust hub: Aggregate NBA NHL MLB Soccer Tennis Cricket UFC NFL Model CLV Experts Calibration

Soccer Trust Dashboard

Calibration of settled soccer picks: the model's Brier against the market's, per league. A split by xG source is added once xG prices live picks.

Soccer xG cohort split

Not live yet. xG has not priced a soccer pick: every pick so far was priced without it, so there is nothing to split by xG source.

Per-league calibration

How settled picks scored in each league. Brier measures how close each pick's probability was to the result, so lower is better. Lift is the model's Brier minus the market's, so negative means the model beat the market. It shows whether the model's edge holds across leagues or comes from one.

Soccer per-league calibration.
League N picks Model Brier Market Brier Lift
EPL 216 0.2110 0.2220 -0.0110
La Liga 300 0.2099 0.2197 -0.0098
Bundesliga 204 0.2282 0.2381 -0.0100
Serie A 265 0.2322 0.2492 -0.0170
Ligue 1 112 0.2108 0.2130 -0.0022