Brier and calibration buckets for the tennis pipeline. Pinnacle pre-match
no-vig P(player_a) is the anchor; outcome from tennis_in_play_match_meta
(only outcome_type='completed' included — retirements/walkovers excluded
from headline per finalizer convention).
Rolling Brier: 0.1921
|
Uniform baseline: 0.2500
N settled = 1415
Live coverage — same-day withdrawal gate
Tour-asymmetric by design. Disclosed honestly so users can size accordingly.
Tennis live-coverage withdrawal-gate status by tour.
ATP coverage gap. ATP picks have NO live same-day withdrawal coverage. Chronic injury history (retirement_risk.py) still applies. Apply tighter sizing on ATP favorites during Slam first weeks.
Policy: CLAUDE.md jurisdiction rule + 2026-05-17 FBref/ufcstats memory — no bypass.
Resolution path: Paid data source (Sportradar tennis ~$30-50k/yr) or direct WTA-style relationship.
Acceptance gate
✓ N=1415 ≥ N=40 per-bucket target
for the bucketed Brier check.
Calibration buckets (5pp bands)
Tennis calibration by predicted-probability bucket.
Bucket
N
Predicted mean
Actual rate
Gap (pp)
Tripwire
0.05 – 0.10
32
0.076
0.125
+4.9pp
● ok
0.10 – 0.15
51
0.128
0.039
-8.8pp
● watch
0.15 – 0.20
55
0.175
0.164
-1.1pp
● ok
0.20 – 0.25
64
0.226
0.219
-0.7pp
● ok
0.25 – 0.30
80
0.272
0.250
-2.2pp
● ok
0.30 – 0.35
97
0.325
0.299
-2.6pp
● ok
0.35 – 0.40
90
0.376
0.367
-0.9pp
● ok
0.40 – 0.45
116
0.425
0.371
-5.4pp
● watch
0.45 – 0.50
88
0.475
0.409
-6.6pp
● watch
0.50 – 0.55
101
0.527
0.505
-2.3pp
● ok
0.55 – 0.60
115
0.574
0.487
-8.7pp
● watch
0.60 – 0.65
106
0.623
0.632
+0.9pp
● ok
0.65 – 0.70
84
0.674
0.643
-3.1pp
● ok
0.70 – 0.75
87
0.725
0.713
-1.2pp
● ok
0.75 – 0.80
81
0.775
0.778
+0.3pp
● ok
0.80 – 0.85
63
0.827
0.905
+7.8pp
● watch
0.85 – 0.90
57
0.869
0.895
+2.5pp
● ok
0.90 – 0.95
34
0.928
1.000
+7.2pp
● watch
0.95 – 1.00
10
0.969
1.000
+3.1pp
● ok
Buckets shown only when N ≥ 5. Tripwire (tennis-expert 2026-05-24 lock):
green <5pp | yellow 5-10pp or thin-N | red ≥10pp at N≥30 (action: hand to
win-rate-optimizer).
ATP / WTA tour-parity audit
Tennis ATP/WTA tour-parity coverage audit.
Tour
N total
N settled
N with anchor
Settlement %
Anchor %
ATP
884
667
876
75.5%
99.1%
WTA
954
755
947
79.1%
99.3%
Parity gap (ATP − WTA)
-70
—
—
-3.7pp
-0.2pp
Per audit competitive-advantage #9: WTA parity is a user-acquisition advantage. ATP-side bias greater than 5pp on
settlement or anchor rates flagged in red.
Recent settled matches
Recent settled tennis matches with model probability and result.
Variance disclosure: tennis is best-of-3 single-match noisy. Brier reads
meaningful at N≥200 across surface×tour-level segments per acceptance
framework. Pre-RG numbers are preliminary.