Brier and calibration buckets for the tennis pipeline. Pinnacle pre-match
no-vig P(player_a) is the anchor; outcome from tennis_in_play_match_meta
(only outcome_type='completed' included — retirements/walkovers excluded
from headline per finalizer convention).
Rolling Brier: 0.1962
|
Uniform baseline: 0.2500
N settled = 1941
Live coverage — same-day withdrawal gate
Tour-asymmetric by design. Disclosed honestly so users can size accordingly.
Tennis live-coverage withdrawal-gate status by tour.
Tour
Source
Status
Notes
Withdrawals last 7d
WTA
api.wtatennis.com (official Pulselive)
live
—
0
ATP
api.atptour.com
blocked
No live feed: the ATP site blocks automated access.
ATP coverage gap. ATP picks have NO live same-day withdrawal coverage. Chronic injury history still applies. Apply tighter sizing on ATP favorites during Slam first weeks.
We don't work around a site's bot protection.
Closing the gap needs a licensed tennis data feed, or official access like the WTA's.
Acceptance gate
✓ N=1941 ≥ N=40 per-bucket target
for the bucketed Brier check.
Calibration buckets (5pp bands)
Tennis calibration by predicted-probability bucket.
Bucket
N
Predicted mean
Actual rate
Gap (pp)
Tripwire
0.00 – 0.05
6
0.039
0.000
-3.9pp
● ok
0.05 – 0.10
38
0.077
0.132
+5.4pp
● watch
0.10 – 0.15
60
0.126
0.050
-7.6pp
● watch
0.15 – 0.20
69
0.175
0.188
+1.3pp
● ok
0.20 – 0.25
89
0.225
0.191
-3.4pp
● ok
0.25 – 0.30
118
0.273
0.220
-5.2pp
● watch
0.30 – 0.35
136
0.325
0.316
-0.9pp
● ok
0.35 – 0.40
132
0.375
0.432
+5.7pp
● watch
0.40 – 0.45
159
0.425
0.396
-2.8pp
● ok
0.45 – 0.50
122
0.476
0.459
-1.7pp
● ok
0.50 – 0.55
135
0.527
0.504
-2.4pp
● ok
0.55 – 0.60
162
0.575
0.519
-5.6pp
● watch
0.60 – 0.65
149
0.622
0.631
+0.8pp
● ok
0.65 – 0.70
126
0.674
0.659
-1.5pp
● ok
0.70 – 0.75
122
0.724
0.721
-0.3pp
● ok
0.75 – 0.80
110
0.775
0.764
-1.1pp
● ok
0.80 – 0.85
80
0.827
0.875
+4.8pp
● ok
0.85 – 0.90
74
0.870
0.919
+4.9pp
● ok
0.90 – 0.95
44
0.926
0.977
+5.2pp
● watch
0.95 – 1.00
10
0.969
1.000
+3.1pp
● ok
Buckets shown only when N ≥ 5. Tripwire (tennis-expert 2026-05-24 lock):
green <5pp | yellow 5-10pp or thin-N | red ≥10pp at N≥30 (action: hand to
win-rate-optimizer).
ATP / WTA tour-parity audit
Tennis ATP/WTA tour-parity coverage audit.
Tour
N total
N settled
N with anchor
Settlement %
Anchor %
ATP
1048
922
1039
88.0%
99.1%
WTA
1141
1030
1134
90.3%
99.4%
Parity gap (ATP − WTA)
-93
—
—
-2.3pp
-0.2pp
Per audit competitive-advantage #9: WTA parity is a user-acquisition advantage. ATP-side bias greater than 5pp on
settlement or anchor rates flagged in red.
Recent settled matches
Recent settled tennis matches with model probability and result.
Variance disclosure: tennis is best-of-3 single-match noisy. Brier reads
meaningful at N≥200 across surface×tour-level segments per acceptance
framework. Pre-RG numbers are preliminary.