Model CLV: aggregate audit

Closing-line-value audit of the platform's picks: the ones we recommended, and every market we priced. CLV = closing price − the price we took, raw implied on both sides. The model is not in that formula, which is what makes it a test rather than a restatement of our own opinion. Positive mean CLV means our picks beat the close, the standard proxy for sharp skill.

-0.17pp
Behind the close on average; the range still includes zero.
Mean closing-line value across 63 recommended picks with a closing line; the price moved our way on 39.7% of them. 95% range -1.0 to +0.7pp, 1.17pp short of our +1.00pp target.

Both prices are the best on the board at their moment, when we posted and at the last capture before kickoff: this measures whether the market came toward us after we posted, not any one book's close.

Since 5 October 2026 our model starts from the market's price, so calls are rarer. Earlier calls stay in this record.

-0.93pp
Not beating the close.
Every market we priced, recommended or not: 5,335 markets; the price did not move our way on 64.0% of them. 95% range -1.1 to -0.8pp, 1.93pp short of our +1.00pp target.

This is the model's raw number, before the selection gate, and the one the plan below is about.

Bar for selling picks +0.00pp Target +1.00pp
Window (by game date):
30 days 90 days All time Since 12 Sep fix
View:
Per sport By sport + bet type
Methodology: The close is the last price captured before kickoff, and a row is recomputed whenever a fresher close is captured. Buckets with N<30 are hidden. The Since 12 Sep fix window starts at the closing-line capture fix of 12 September 2026, the cohort the selling test is judged on. CLV compares the best price available when we posted the pick with the best price available at the last capture before kickoff. Both ends are best-of-board, and the close is captured across at least as many books as the board we post from, Pinnacle where it is quoted, so the comparison does not tilt in our favour.

Every market we priced, by sport and market

Every market we priced, by sport and market: model CLV per bucket.
Sport Market N Mean CLV Median CLV % beating close
MLB Spread 717 -0.94pp -0.85pp 34.0%
MLB Moneyline 686 -0.35pp -0.46pp 40.2%
WTA Tennis Moneyline 627 -0.54pp -0.36pp 41.1%
ATP Tennis Moneyline 546 -0.94pp -0.93pp 37.4%
NCAAF Moneyline 418 -2.36pp -1.68pp 26.1%
MLB Over/Under 403 -0.45pp -0.47pp 39.7%
UFC Moneyline 189 -1.38pp +0.00pp 48.7%
NHL Spread 172 -0.92pp -0.85pp 34.3%
UFC Over/Under 133 -0.50pp -0.70pp 43.6%
NFL Moneyline 105 -3.11pp -2.16pp 40.0%
La Liga Moneyline 97 -1.94pp -1.76pp 30.9%
NHL Over/Under 95 -1.05pp -0.97pp 27.4%
NCAAF Spread 88 -0.87pp -0.68pp 12.5%
Serie A Moneyline 85 -1.43pp -1.52pp 30.6%
EPL Moneyline 75 +1.55pp -1.10pp 42.7%
NCAAF Over/Under 73 -0.67pp -0.47pp 9.6%
La Liga Over/Under 71 -1.09pp -2.12pp 32.4%
Ligue 1 Moneyline 70 -0.04pp -1.23pp 42.9%
Serie A Over/Under 67 -1.80pp -2.62pp 38.8%
NBA Moneyline 65 -1.56pp -1.50pp 36.9%
Bundesliga Moneyline 57 +1.17pp -0.58pp 42.1%
Champions League Moneyline 54 -2.97pp -3.18pp 27.8%
EPL Over/Under 53 -2.35pp -2.61pp 26.4%
Ligue 1 Over/Under 53 -0.95pp +0.00pp 49.1%
La Liga Spread 40 -1.35pp -0.73pp 42.5%
Bundesliga Over/Under 36 +0.37pp +0.00pp 44.4%
Champions League Over/Under 33 +1.76pp +0.71pp 54.5%
EPL Spread 33 -0.78pp -1.68pp 30.3%

Cumulative-mean CLV trajectory

Cumulative mean CLV, every market we priced · N=5,335 · 31 Jul 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 · ends at -0.93pp

What we are doing about it

A number like the one above is worth little without the response to it, so here is ours, and the figure that will show whether it worked.

  1. Narrow to where we are least behind. CLV is not evenly distributed. Today the largest sample is MLB, 1,806 markets at -0.60pp, and the widest gap is NFL, -2.74pp on 126. Coverage follows the evidence rather than the calendar.
  2. Pull the model toward the market where it disagrees most. In the band where our probability departs furthest from the closing price, the market has been the better estimator. That is a calibration problem with a known direction, not a mystery.
  3. Fix the instrument before trusting it. Some of what this page measured was measurement error, found and corrected in September 2026. Numbers here predate and postdate those fixes; the trajectory above, by game date, is the honest view.

The test: mean CLV on the picks we recommend, non-negative at 95% confidence. Today, on this window: -0.17pp, range -1.0 to +0.7pp, on 63 picks. Does not clear it. Until it does we are not selling picks, and this page will keep saying so.

See /trust for live calibration buckets across sports and /methodology for the signal pipeline behind each pick.