Experts vs the closing line
Ranked by price vs. the closing line, discounted for small samples. Records over a few dozen picks are mostly luck.
Every expert on this page is scored the way we score ourselves: against the closing line. Over a few hundred bets a win-loss record is mostly luck; beating the closing line is a steadier signal. Our own row, Consensus Edge (graded calls), is the set the CLV page calls recommended picks: every pick the product recommended, over the window chosen here. The 90-day view matches that page's default.
Price CLV compares the price the expert posted (or, when their page printed none, the market price when we first saw the pick) with the best price at the last capture before kickoff. For spreads and over/unders it counts only picks whose line did not move; line value counts the points gained. Everyone with at least two priced picks is ranked by price CLV, discounted for small samples (the mean times n / (n + 30)), our own row included. An expert's status reads Building sample until there are 50 scored picks and at least 30 of them carry a price CLV; only then can their record change how much they move our number. Picks we cannot grade, such as a spread or over/under on a fight, are left out of every figure. Picks come from each expert's public articles; names link to the source.
| # | Expert | Outlet | Picks | W-L-P | ROI | Price CLV | Beat the close | Line value | Status | Reasons | Last pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Consensus Edge (graded calls) | 344 | 156-177-11 | -1.2% | +1.6pp (n=84) | 43% | n/a | Ahead of the close on average; the range still includes zero. | n/a | Oct 18 | |
| 2 | Brad Powers | Covers | 30 | 14-16-0 | -7.5% | +0.3pp (n=16) | 56% | +0.08 pts | Building sample (n = 30) | matchup 25%, numbers_model 22% | Oct 24 |
| 3 | Mark Lammey | Pickswise | 5 | 1-4-0 | -63.3% | -0.1pp (n=5) | 40% | +0.00 pts | Building sample (n = 5) | matchup 31%, trend 19% | Oct 19 |
| 4 | Chris Farley | Pickswise | 12 | 6-6-0 | -2.8% | -0.4pp (n=3) | 33% | -0.04 pts | Building sample (n = 12) | matchup 31%, line_value 26% | Oct 21 |
| 5 | Mike Spector | Sportsbook Review | 2 | 1-1-0 | -9.3% | -0.8pp (n=2) | 0% | +0.00 pts | Building sample (n = 2) | trend 33%, matchup 33% | Oct 12 |
| 6 | Matt Moore | Action Network | 2 | 1-1-0 | -5.8% | -2.1pp (n=2) | 0% | +0.00 pts | Building sample (n = 2) | matchup 28%, numbers_model 28% | Oct 28 |
| 7 | Neil Parker | Covers | 5 | 2-3-0 | -13.2% | -1.1pp (n=5) | 20% | +0.00 pts | Building sample (n = 5) | numbers_model 38%, matchup 23% | Oct 26 |
| 8 | Brandon Anderson | Action Network | 13 | 9-3-1 | +38.4% | -1.4pp (n=4) | 25% | +0.42 pts | Building sample (n = 13) | trend 23%, line_value 20% | Oct 24 |
| 9 | Collin Wilson | Action Network | 26 | 9-17-0 | -23.2% | -1.3pp (n=7) | 0% | -0.57 pts | Building sample (n = 26) | numbers_model 35%, matchup 34% | Oct 24 |
| 10 | Jason Logan | Covers | 43 | 24-19-0 | +6.9% | -1.1pp (n=17) | 41% | +0.52 pts | Building sample (n = 43) | matchup 31%, injury 21% | Oct 26 |
| 11 | Nick Griffith | Action Network | 8 | 2-6-0 | -51.4% | -2.9pp (n=8) | 0% | +0.00 pts | Building sample (n = 8) | matchup 27%, rest_travel 18% | Oct 26 |
| 12 | Peter Dewey | Sports Illustrated | 70 | 38-30-2 | +6.4% | -2.4pp (n=21) | 0% | +0.44 pts | Building sample (n = 70) | matchup 28%, numbers_model 20% | Oct 28 |
| 13 | Stuckey | Action Network | 98 | 47-49-2 | -6.4% | -2.2pp (n=27) | 4% | +0.39 pts | Building sample (n = 98) | matchup 26%, trend 18% | Oct 25 |
| Not ranked yet | |||||||||||
| — | Vaughn Dalzell | NBC Sports | 5 | 2-2-1 | -8.1% | n/a | n/a | +0.60 pts | Building sample (n = 5) | matchup 33%, trend 20% | Oct 23 |