Experts vs the closing line
Ranked by price vs. the closing line, discounted for small samples. Records over a few dozen picks are mostly luck.
Every expert on this page is scored the way we score ourselves: against the closing line. Over a few hundred bets a win-loss record is mostly luck; beating the closing line is a steadier signal. Our own row, Consensus Edge (graded calls), is the set the CLV page calls recommended picks: every pick the product recommended, over the window chosen here. The 90-day view matches that page's default.
Price CLV compares the price the expert posted (or, when their page printed none, the market price when we first saw the pick) with the best price at the last capture before kickoff. For spreads and over/unders it counts only picks whose line did not move; line value counts the points gained. Everyone with at least two priced picks is ranked by price CLV, discounted for small samples (the mean times n / (n + 30)), our own row included. An expert's status reads Building sample until there are 50 scored picks and at least 30 of them carry a price CLV; only then can their record change how much they move our number. Picks we cannot grade, such as a spread or over/under on a fight, are left out of every figure. Picks come from each expert's public articles; names link to the source.
| # | Expert | Outlet | Picks | W-L-P | ROI | Price CLV | Beat the close | Line value | Status | Reasons | Last pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon Metler | Covers | 52 | 27-25-0 | -11.5% | +0.8pp (n=51) | 53% | n/a | Ahead of the close on average; the range still includes zero. | matchup 31%, numbers_model 26% | Oct 27 |
| 2 | Billy Ward | Action Network | 3 | 2-1-0 | +21.1% | +2.4pp (n=3) | 100% | n/a | Building sample (n = 3) | line_value 33%, other 33% | Oct 19 |
| 3 | Andy Schooler | Sporting Life | 3 | 2-1-0 | +33.3% | +2.1pp (n=3) | 100% | n/a | Building sample (n = 3) | trend 33%, other 33% | Oct 7 |
| 4 | Jason Logan | Covers | 21 | 15-6-0 | +26.5% | +0.4pp (n=21) | 57% | n/a | Building sample (n = 21) | matchup 30%, injury 21% | Oct 26 |
| 5 | Jake Osgathorpe | Sporting Life | 2 | 2-0-0 | +95.2% | +1.2pp (n=2) | 100% | n/a | Building sample (n = 2) | trend 33%, matchup 33% | Oct 12 |
| 6 | Ethan Diamandas | Sportsbook Review | 2 | 1-1-0 | -10.0% | +0.7pp (n=2) | 50% | n/a | Building sample (n = 2) | matchup 40%, trend 40% | Oct 23 |
| 7 | Brad Powers | Covers | 3 | 1-2-0 | -45.3% | +0.4pp (n=2) | 50% | n/a | Building sample (n = 3) | matchup 43%, trend 28% | Oct 24 |
| 8 | Javan Shouey | Pickswise | 3 | 1-2-0 | -42.3% | -1.4pp (n=3) | 0% | n/a | Building sample (n = 3) | matchup 33%, line_value 33% | Oct 26 |
| 9 | Stuckey | Action Network | 15 | 9-6-0 | +28.3% | -0.8pp (n=12) | 33% | n/a | Building sample (n = 15) | matchup 31%, injury 17% | Oct 25 |
| 10 | Vaughn Dalzell | NBC Sports | 3 | 2-1-0 | +26.7% | -2.7pp (n=3) | 0% | n/a | Building sample (n = 3) | matchup 43%, trend 43% | Oct 23 |
| 11 | Consensus Edge (graded calls) | 123 | 69-54-0 | -6.4% | -0.4pp (n=90) | 41% | n/a | Behind the close on average; the range still includes zero. | n/a | Oct 10 | |
| 12 | Mike Spector | Sportsbook Review | 13 | 9-4-0 | +34.5% | -1.1pp (n=13) | 15% | n/a | Building sample (n = 13) | matchup 34%, trend 32% | Oct 25 |
| 13 | Chris Vasile | Covers | 41 | 25-16-0 | +30.6% | -0.8pp (n=30) | 47% | n/a | Building sample (n = 41) | matchup 40%, trend 21% | Oct 23 |
| 14 | Danny Howard | Covers | 14 | 13-1-0 | +47.0% | -2.2pp (n=14) | 21% | n/a | Building sample (n = 14) | matchup 48%, trend 28% | Oct 24 |
| 15 | Andy Lang | WagerTalk | 35 | 20-15-0 | +11.7% | -1.9pp (n=34) | 38% | n/a | Building sample (n = 35) | matchup 57%, line_value 19% | Oct 22 |
| 16 | Peter Dewey | Sports Illustrated | 26 | 14-12-0 | -9.7% | -2.2pp (n=26) | 19% | n/a | Building sample (n = 26) | matchup 36%, injury 19% | Oct 28 |
| Not ranked yet | |||||||||||
| — | Nick Griffith | Action Network | 19 | 10-9-0 | +3.1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | Building sample (n = 19) | matchup 27%, injury 21% | Oct 26 |
| — | Neil Parker | Covers | 18 | 12-6-0 | +28.7% | n/a | n/a | n/a | Building sample (n = 18) | numbers_model 39%, trend 25% | Oct 27 |
| — | Mark Lammey | Pickswise | 14 | 10-4-0 | +34.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | Building sample (n = 14) | matchup 31%, line_value 24% | Oct 23 |
| — | Iain MacMillan | Sports Illustrated | 3 | 1-2-0 | -34.9% | n/a | n/a | n/a | Building sample (n = 3) | numbers_model 43%, line_value 28% | Oct 26 |
| — | Sam McLoughlin | William Hill | 1 | 1-0-0 | +90.9% | n/a | n/a | n/a | Building sample (n = 1) | trend 50%, matchup 50% | Oct 12 |
| — | Dan Tom | Action Network | 1 | 1-0-0 | +74.1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | Building sample (n = 1) | line_value 33%, matchup 33% | Oct 23 |
| — | James Eastham | Covers | 1 | 1-0-0 | +233.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | Building sample (n = 1) | trend 33%, line_value 33% | Oct 24 |