Experts vs the closing line
Ranked by price vs. the closing line, discounted for small samples. Records over a few dozen picks are mostly luck.
Every expert on this page is scored the way we score ourselves: against the closing line. Over a few hundred bets a win-loss record is mostly luck; beating the closing line is a steadier signal. Our own row, Consensus Edge (graded calls), is the set the CLV page calls recommended picks: every pick the product recommended, over the window chosen here. The 90-day view matches that page's default.
Price CLV compares the price the expert posted (or, when their page printed none, the market price when we first saw the pick) with the best price at the last capture before kickoff. For spreads and over/unders it counts only picks whose line did not move; line value counts the points gained. Everyone with at least two priced picks is ranked by price CLV, discounted for small samples (the mean times n / (n + 30)), our own row included. An expert's status reads Building sample until there are 50 scored picks and at least 30 of them carry a price CLV; only then can their record change how much they move our number. Picks we cannot grade, such as a spread or over/under on a fight, are left out of every figure. Picks come from each expert's public articles; names link to the source.
| # | Expert | Outlet | Picks | W-L-P | ROI | Price CLV | Beat the close | Line value | Status | Reasons | Last pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon Metler | Covers | 52 | 27-25-0 | -11.5% | +0.8pp (n=51) | 53% | n/a | Ahead of the close on average; the range still includes zero. | matchup 31%, numbers_model 26% | Oct 27 |
| 2 | Billy Ward | Action Network | 3 | 2-1-0 | +21.1% | +2.4pp (n=3) | 100% | n/a | Building sample (n = 3) | line_value 33%, other 33% | Oct 19 |
| 3 | Andy Schooler | Sporting Life | 3 | 2-1-0 | +33.3% | +2.1pp (n=3) | 100% | n/a | Building sample (n = 3) | trend 33%, other 33% | Oct 7 |
| 4 | Brad Powers | Covers | 42 | 21-21-0 | -1.7% | +0.3pp (n=18) | 56% | +0.14 pts | Building sample (n = 42) | matchup 27%, numbers_model 21% | Oct 24 |
| 5 | Ethan Diamandas | Sportsbook Review | 2 | 1-1-0 | -10.0% | +0.7pp (n=2) | 50% | n/a | Building sample (n = 2) | matchup 40%, trend 40% | Oct 23 |
| 6 | Consensus Edge (graded calls) | 105 | 54-48-3 | -1.2% | -0.2pp (n=63) | 40% | n/a | Behind the close on average; the range still includes zero. | n/a | Oct 18 | |
| 7 | Javan Shouey | Pickswise | 3 | 1-2-0 | -42.3% | -1.4pp (n=3) | 0% | n/a | Building sample (n = 3) | matchup 33%, line_value 33% | Oct 26 |
| 8 | Chris Farley | Pickswise | 22 | 11-11-0 | -3.4% | -0.8pp (n=7) | 14% | +0.20 pts | Building sample (n = 22) | matchup 32%, injury 16% | Oct 21 |
| 9 | Jason Logan | Covers | 96 | 55-41-0 | +8.1% | -0.3pp (n=46) | 43% | +0.63 pts | Behind the close on average; the range still includes zero. | matchup 32%, injury 20% | Oct 26 |
| 10 | Neil Parker | Covers | 34 | 17-17-0 | -3.6% | -0.8pp (n=9) | 22% | +0.12 pts | Building sample (n = 34) | numbers_model 40%, trend 27% | Oct 27 |
| 11 | Brandon Anderson | Action Network | 18 | 11-6-1 | +17.1% | -1.4pp (n=6) | 17% | +0.44 pts | Building sample (n = 18) | trend 23%, matchup 21% | Oct 24 |
| 12 | Collin Wilson | Action Network | 36 | 17-19-0 | -12.5% | -1.3pp (n=7) | 0% | -0.17 pts | Building sample (n = 36) | matchup 35%, numbers_model 32% | Oct 24 |
| 13 | Chris Vasile | Covers | 41 | 25-16-0 | +30.6% | -0.8pp (n=30) | 47% | n/a | Building sample (n = 41) | matchup 40%, trend 21% | Oct 23 |
| 14 | Jake Osgathorpe | Sporting Life | 5 | 5-0-0 | +98.1% | -2.9pp (n=5) | 40% | +0.00 pts | Building sample (n = 5) | trend 33%, matchup 33% | Oct 24 |
| 15 | Mike Spector | Sportsbook Review | 17 | 11-6-0 | +24.3% | -1.2pp (n=16) | 12% | +0.12 pts | Building sample (n = 17) | matchup 34%, trend 32% | Oct 25 |
| 16 | Vaughn Dalzell | NBC Sports | 20 | 11-8-1 | +10.4% | -2.6pp (n=7) | 0% | +0.27 pts | Building sample (n = 20) | matchup 38%, trend 30% | Oct 23 |
| 17 | Nick Griffith | Action Network | 38 | 23-15-0 | +14.3% | -2.9pp (n=8) | 0% | +0.11 pts | Building sample (n = 38) | matchup 27%, injury 19% | Oct 26 |
| 18 | Danny Howard | Covers | 14 | 13-1-0 | +47.0% | -2.2pp (n=14) | 21% | n/a | Building sample (n = 14) | matchup 48%, trend 28% | Oct 24 |
| 19 | Mark Lammey | Pickswise | 68 | 38-28-2 | +6.8% | -1.7pp (n=22) | 23% | +0.16 pts | Building sample (n = 68) | matchup 35%, trend 26% | Oct 27 |
| 20 | Stuckey | Action Network | 115 | 58-55-2 | +1.3% | -1.8pp (n=39) | 13% | +0.44 pts | Not beating the close. | matchup 27%, trend 17% | Oct 25 |
| 21 | Andy Lang | WagerTalk | 35 | 20-15-0 | +11.7% | -1.9pp (n=34) | 38% | n/a | Building sample (n = 35) | matchup 57%, line_value 19% | Oct 22 |
| 22 | Peter Dewey | Sports Illustrated | 105 | 56-47-2 | +1.5% | -2.4pp (n=45) | 9% | +0.56 pts | Not beating the close. | matchup 31%, numbers_model 21% | Oct 28 |
| Not ranked yet | |||||||||||
| — | Iain MacMillan | Sports Illustrated | 4 | 1-2-1 | -26.2% | n/a | n/a | -0.50 pts | Building sample (n = 4) | numbers_model 44%, line_value 22% | Oct 26 |
| — | James Eastham | Covers | 2 | 1-1-0 | +66.5% | n/a | n/a | +0.00 pts | Building sample (n = 2) | trend 40%, numbers_model 20% | Oct 24 |
| — | Sam McLoughlin | William Hill | 1 | 1-0-0 | +90.9% | n/a | n/a | n/a | Building sample (n = 1) | trend 50%, matchup 50% | Oct 12 |
| — | Matt Moore | Action Network | 1 | 0-1-0 | -100.0% | n/a | n/a | +0.00 pts | Building sample (n = 1) | matchup 33%, line_value 33% | Oct 28 |
| — | Dan Tom | Action Network | 1 | 1-0-0 | +74.1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | Building sample (n = 1) | line_value 33%, matchup 33% | Oct 23 |