| Pinnacle P(Iga Swiatek) | 0.804 |
|---|---|
| Pinnacle P(Qinwen Zheng) | 0.196 |
| n_books observed | 1 live |
Sharp anchor sourced via OddsAPI event_id lookup → Pinnacle no-vig computation. (Field-id mismatch fix shipped 2026-05-02 — pinnacle capture is now the source of truth for pre-match anchoring.)
| Surface | Iga Swiatek | Qinwen Zheng | Diff (a−b) |
|---|---|---|---|
| hard | 1500 (0) | 1500 (0) | +0 |
| clay | 1500 (0) | 1500 (0) | +0 |
| grass | 1500 (0) | 1500 (0) | +0 |
| indoor | 1500 (0) | 1500 (0) | +0 |
| overall | 1500 (0) | 1500 (0) | +0 |
Per-surface ELO from 24h-cached global rater. Number-in-parens = matches contributing to that rating.
| Player | Archetype | n matches | Hold % | Aces / match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iga Swiatek | aggressive_baseliner | 185 | 0.771 | 2.3 |
| Qinwen Zheng | big_server | 107 | 0.759 | 7.4 |
Matchup adjustment: +0.00pp toward Qinwen Zheng on hard.
v0 sharp priors per tennis-betting-expert lock 2026-05-02. Display-only — NOT blended into the headline composite probability above. Promotion to wired-in pending: N≥200 archetype-tagged settled matches with closing-line capture + Brier delta ≥+0.005 vs unwired baseline + no 5pp-bucket regression. Re-evaluate post-Roland Garros (2026-06-09).
| Adjustment | Iga Swiatek | Qinwen Zheng | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match fatigue (14d load) | -1.50pp (load 3.0) | -3.00pp (load 6.3) | +1.50pp |
Live adjustments flowed into the headline composite probability above. Surface transition gated to documented poor-history (>15% win-rate drop in first 3 surface-change matches). Fatigue: 14-day load weighted by best-of (BO5=2.0, BO3=1.0), capped ±3pp. Tennis-betting-expert RG R1 audit 2026-05-24.
| Signal | Weight |
|---|---|
| surface_elo | 0.35 |
| recent_form | 0.18 |
| h2h_matrix | 0.16 |
| surface_transition | 0.11 |
| match_simulator | 0.10 |
| tournament_fatigue | 0.10 |
| Sum | 1.00 |
Locked weights per tennis-betting-expert composite design 2026-04-26. Signals flagged low_data are excluded; remaining weights renormalize proportionally. h2h overweighting noted in audit; will be revisited with a dedicated calibration pass after Roland Garros.
| Time | Set | Game | Score | Server | P(Iga Swiatek) | P(Qinwen Zheng) | Exp games | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:26:29 | 2 | 5 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 2], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['A', '40']} | b | 0.261 | 0.740 | 30.7 | feed |
| 17:27:00 | 2 | 6 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.235 | 0.764 | 31.5 | feed |
| 17:27:31 | 2 | 6 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']} | b | 0.237 | 0.762 | 31.5 | feed |
| 17:28:01 | 2 | 6 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']} | b | 0.227 | 0.773 | 31.5 | feed |
| 17:28:32 | 2 | 6 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '0']} | b | 0.238 | 0.762 | 31.5 | feed |
| 17:29:02 | 2 | 6 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '15']} | b | 0.237 | 0.763 | 31.5 | feed |
| 17:29:33 | 2 | 6 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '15']} | b | 0.238 | 0.762 | 31.7 | feed |
| 17:30:03 | 2 | 6 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '30']} | b | 0.252 | 0.748 | 31.6 | feed |
| 17:30:34 | 2 | 6 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '30']} | b | 0.243 | 0.757 | 31.7 | feed |
| 17:31:04 | 2 | 6 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '30']} | b | 0.241 | 0.759 | 31.7 | feed |
| 17:31:36 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.230 | 0.770 | 32.1 | feed |
| 17:32:06 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.207 | 0.792 | 32.0 | feed |
| 17:32:37 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.213 | 0.786 | 32.0 | feed |
| 17:33:07 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.212 | 0.788 | 32.0 | feed |
| 17:33:38 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']} | b | 0.211 | 0.789 | 31.9 | feed |
| 17:34:08 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']} | b | 0.214 | 0.786 | 31.9 | feed |
| 17:34:39 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '15']} | b | 0.207 | 0.793 | 31.9 | feed |
| 17:35:09 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '15']} | b | 0.224 | 0.776 | 31.9 | feed |
| 17:35:40 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.099 | 0.901 | 30.7 | feed |
| 17:36:11 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.109 | 0.891 | 30.9 | feed |
| 17:36:41 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']} | b | 0.100 | 0.900 | 30.8 | feed |
| 17:37:12 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '0']} | b | 0.103 | 0.897 | 30.8 | feed |
| 17:37:42 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '0']} | b | 0.102 | 0.897 | 30.7 | feed |
| 17:38:13 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '0']} | b | 0.113 | 0.887 | 30.9 | feed |
| 17:38:43 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '15']} | b | 0.110 | 0.890 | 30.8 | feed |
| 17:39:14 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '30']} | b | 0.109 | 0.891 | 30.9 | feed |
| 17:39:45 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']} | b | 0.104 | 0.895 | 30.8 | feed |
| 17:40:15 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['A', '40']} | b | 0.102 | 0.897 | 30.9 | feed |
| 17:40:46 | 3 | 9 | {'sets': [[0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.0 | feed |
| 17:41:17 | 3 | 9 | {'sets': [[0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['13', '8']} | b | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.0 | feed |