| Pinnacle P(Naomi Osaka) | 0.438 |
|---|---|
| Pinnacle P(Elena Rybakina) | 0.562 |
| n_books observed | 1 live |
Sharp anchor sourced via OddsAPI event_id lookup → Pinnacle no-vig computation. (Field-id mismatch fix shipped 2026-05-02 — pinnacle capture is now the source of truth for pre-match anchoring.)
| Surface | Naomi Osaka | Elena Rybakina | Diff (a−b) |
|---|---|---|---|
| hard | 1500 (0) | 1500 (0) | +0 |
| clay | 1500 (0) | 1500 (0) | +0 |
| grass | 1500 (0) | 1500 (0) | +0 |
| indoor | 1500 (0) | 1500 (0) | +0 |
| overall | 1500 (0) | 1500 (0) | +0 |
Per-surface ELO from 24h-cached global rater. Number-in-parens = matches contributing to that rating.
| Player | Archetype | n matches | Hold % | Aces / match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naomi Osaka | big_server | 76 | 0.823 | 7.0 |
| Elena Rybakina | big_server | 164 | 0.787 | 6.9 |
Matchup adjustment: +0.00pp toward Elena Rybakina on hard.
v0 sharp priors per tennis-betting-expert lock 2026-05-02. Display-only — NOT blended into the headline composite probability above. Promotion to wired-in pending: N≥200 archetype-tagged settled matches with closing-line capture + Brier delta ≥+0.005 vs unwired baseline + no 5pp-bucket regression. Re-evaluate post-Roland Garros (2026-06-09).
| Adjustment | Naomi Osaka | Elena Rybakina | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match fatigue (14d load) | -2.00pp (load 4.0) | -2.00pp (load 4.0) | +0.00pp |
Live adjustments flowed into the headline composite probability above. Surface transition gated to documented poor-history (>15% win-rate drop in first 3 surface-change matches). Fatigue: 14-day load weighted by best-of (BO5=2.0, BO3=1.0), capped ±3pp. Tennis-betting-expert RG R1 audit 2026-05-24.
| Signal | Weight |
|---|---|
| surface_elo | 0.35 |
| recent_form | 0.18 |
| h2h_matrix | 0.16 |
| surface_transition | 0.11 |
| match_simulator | 0.10 |
| tournament_fatigue | 0.10 |
| Sum | 1.00 |
Locked weights per tennis-betting-expert composite design 2026-04-26. Signals flagged low_data are excluded; remaining weights renormalize proportionally. h2h overweighting noted in audit; will be revisited with a dedicated calibration pass after Roland Garros.
| Time | Set | Game | Score | Server | P(Naomi Osaka) | P(Elena Rybakina) | Exp games | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21:07:01 | 2 | 6 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '15']} | b | 0.239 | 0.760 | 27.6 | feed |
| 21:07:32 | 2 | 6 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '15']} | b | 0.269 | 0.731 | 27.7 | feed |
| 21:08:03 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.213 | 0.786 | 27.8 | feed |
| 21:08:33 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.224 | 0.776 | 27.9 | feed |
| 21:09:03 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.213 | 0.787 | 28.0 | feed |
| 21:09:34 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.217 | 0.782 | 27.9 | feed |
| 21:10:05 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']} | b | 0.218 | 0.781 | 27.9 | feed |
| 21:10:35 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']} | b | 0.225 | 0.775 | 28.1 | feed |
| 21:11:06 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '0']} | b | 0.221 | 0.779 | 28.2 | feed |
| 21:11:36 | 2 | 7 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '15']} | b | 0.219 | 0.781 | 28.0 | feed |
| 21:12:07 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.112 | 0.888 | 26.9 | feed |
| 21:12:37 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.104 | 0.896 | 26.8 | feed |
| 21:13:08 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '0']} | b | 0.105 | 0.895 | 26.9 | feed |
| 21:13:38 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '15']} | b | 0.096 | 0.904 | 26.9 | feed |
| 21:14:09 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '15']} | b | 0.102 | 0.898 | 26.8 | feed |
| 21:14:39 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '15']} | b | 0.111 | 0.889 | 26.8 | feed |
| 21:15:10 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '30']} | b | 0.101 | 0.899 | 26.8 | feed |
| 21:15:40 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']} | b | 0.102 | 0.897 | 26.9 | feed |
| 21:16:11 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', 'A']} | b | 0.101 | 0.899 | 26.8 | feed |
| 21:16:42 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']} | b | 0.114 | 0.886 | 26.9 | feed |
| 21:17:12 | 2 | 8 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [3, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', 'A']} | b | 0.110 | 0.890 | 26.9 | feed |
| 21:17:43 | 2 | 9 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.221 | 0.779 | 30.0 | feed |
| 21:18:14 | 2 | 9 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.199 | 0.801 | 29.9 | feed |
| 21:18:44 | 2 | 9 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.210 | 0.790 | 30.0 | feed |
| 21:19:15 | 2 | 9 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} | b | 0.228 | 0.772 | 30.2 | feed |
| 21:19:46 | 2 | 9 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']} | b | 0.223 | 0.777 | 29.9 | feed |
| 21:20:16 | 2 | 9 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']} | b | 0.220 | 0.780 | 30.0 | feed |
| 21:20:47 | 2 | 9 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '0']} | b | 0.212 | 0.787 | 30.0 | feed |
| 21:21:17 | 2 | 9 | {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '0']} | b | 0.209 | 0.790 | 29.9 | feed |
| 21:21:48 | 3 | 10 | {'sets': [[0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['12', '5']} | b | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.0 | feed |