Iva Jović vs Coco Gauff

hard wta grand_slam best of 3 tennis_wta_us_open · commence 2026-09-07 23:00:00+00:00 · completed winner: b

P(Iva Jović) = 0.000  |  P(Coco Gauff) = 1.000
live composite (last tick)

Sharp anchor — Pinnacle pre-match

Pinnacle P(Iva Jović) 0.268
Pinnacle P(Coco Gauff) 0.732
n_books observed 1 live

Sharp anchor sourced via OddsAPI event_id lookup → Pinnacle no-vig computation. (Field-id mismatch fix shipped 2026-05-02 — pinnacle capture is now the source of truth for pre-match anchoring.)

Surface ELO radar

Surface Iva JovićCoco Gauff Diff (a−b)
hard 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
clay 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
grass 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
indoor 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
overall 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0

Per-surface ELO from 24h-cached global rater. Number-in-parens = matches contributing to that rating.

Style matchup (display-only · v0 priors · NOT in headline)

Player Archetype n matches Hold % Aces / match
Iva Jović unknown 2 0.720 0.5
Coco Gauff big_server 168 0.726 4.3

Style matchup signal: style matchup low_data: missing archetype or surface

v0 sharp priors per tennis-betting-expert lock 2026-05-02. Display-only — NOT blended into the headline composite probability above. Promotion to wired-in pending: N≥200 archetype-tagged settled matches with closing-line capture + Brier delta ≥+0.005 vs unwired baseline + no 5pp-bucket regression. Re-evaluate post-Roland Garros (2026-06-09).

Composite adjustments (live)

AdjustmentIva JovićCoco GauffNet
Match fatigue (14d load) -1.50pp (load 3.0) -2.00pp (load 4.0) +0.50pp

Live adjustments flowed into the headline composite probability above. Surface transition gated to documented poor-history (>15% win-rate drop in first 3 surface-change matches). Fatigue: 14-day load weighted by best-of (BO5=2.0, BO3=1.0), capped ±3pp. Tennis-betting-expert RG R1 audit 2026-05-24.

Composite signal weights

SignalWeight
surface_elo 0.35
recent_form 0.18
h2h_matrix 0.16
surface_transition 0.11
match_simulator 0.10
tournament_fatigue 0.10
Sum 1.00

Locked weights per tennis-betting-expert composite design 2026-04-26. Signals flagged low_data are excluded; remaining weights renormalize proportionally. h2h overweighting noted in audit; will be revisited with a dedicated calibration pass after Roland Garros.

Live trajectory (98 ticks)

Time Set Game Score Server P(Iva Jović) P(Coco Gauff) Exp games Source
23:54:59 2 0 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [0, 0], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '15']} b 0.244 0.756 21.8 feed
23:55:29 2 0 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [0, 0], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '30']} b 0.256 0.744 21.7 feed
23:56:00 2 0 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [0, 0], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '30']} b 0.251 0.750 21.7 feed
23:56:30 2 0 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [0, 0], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '30']} b 0.254 0.746 21.9 feed
23:57:01 2 0 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [0, 0], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']} b 0.248 0.752 21.6 feed
23:57:32 2 0 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [0, 0], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']} b 0.267 0.734 21.7 feed
23:58:02 2 0 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [0, 0], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', 'A']} b 0.242 0.758 21.5 feed
23:58:33 2 0 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [0, 0], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', 'A']} b 0.241 0.758 21.7 feed
23:59:04 2 1 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 0], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.256 0.744 22.6 feed
23:59:34 2 1 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 0], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.239 0.760 22.5 feed
00:00:05 2 1 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 0], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '15']} b 0.237 0.762 22.5 feed
00:00:35 2 1 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 0], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '30']} b 0.238 0.762 22.6 feed
00:01:06 2 1 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 0], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '30']} b 0.258 0.742 22.6 feed
00:01:36 2 1 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 0], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '30']} b 0.240 0.760 22.7 feed
00:02:07 2 1 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 0], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '30']} b 0.250 0.750 22.5 feed
00:02:37 2 1 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 0], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '30']} b 0.230 0.770 22.4 feed
00:03:08 2 1 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 0], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '30']} b 0.255 0.746 22.6 feed
00:03:38 2 1 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 0], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '30']} b 0.236 0.764 22.4 feed
00:04:09 2 1 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 0], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '30']} b 0.235 0.764 22.7 feed
00:04:39 2 1 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 0], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '30']} b 0.255 0.745 22.6 feed
00:05:10 2 2 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 1], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.233 0.767 23.7 feed
01:01:06 3 10 {'sets': [[0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['12', '5']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed
01:02:06 3 10 {'sets': [[0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['12', '5']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed
01:03:06 3 10 {'sets': [[0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['12', '5']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed
01:04:07 3 10 {'sets': [[0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['12', '5']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed
01:05:07 3 10 {'sets': [[0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['12', '5']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed
01:06:07 3 10 {'sets': [[0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['12', '5']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed
01:07:08 3 10 {'sets': [[0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['12', '5']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed
01:08:08 3 10 {'sets': [[0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['12', '5']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed
01:09:25 3 10 {'sets': [[0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['12', '5']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed

Showing last 30 of 98 ticks.

Tennis variance: best-of-3 single-match outcomes are noisy. Composite + trajectory shown for transparency, not as a tout. Use closing-line comparison (vs Pinnacle anchor above) as the canonical edge metric.