Anna Kalinskaya vs Emma Navarro

hard wta grand_slam best of 3 tennis_wta_us_open · commence 2026-09-07 00:50:00+00:00 · completed winner: b

P(Anna Kalinskaya) = 0.000  |  P(Emma Navarro) = 1.000
live composite (last tick)

Sharp anchor — Pinnacle pre-match

Pinnacle P(Anna Kalinskaya) 0.516
Pinnacle P(Emma Navarro) 0.484
n_books observed 1 live

Sharp anchor sourced via OddsAPI event_id lookup → Pinnacle no-vig computation. (Field-id mismatch fix shipped 2026-05-02 — pinnacle capture is now the source of truth for pre-match anchoring.)

Surface ELO radar

Surface Anna KalinskayaEmma Navarro Diff (a−b)
hard 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
clay 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
grass 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
indoor 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
overall 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0

Per-surface ELO from 24h-cached global rater. Number-in-parens = matches contributing to that rating.

Style matchup (display-only · v0 priors · NOT in headline)

Player Archetype n matches Hold % Aces / match
Anna Kalinskaya aggressive_baseliner 101 0.688 1.7
Emma Navarro aggressive_baseliner 62 0.662 1.3

Matchup adjustment: +0.00pp toward Emma Navarro on hard.

v0 sharp priors per tennis-betting-expert lock 2026-05-02. Display-only — NOT blended into the headline composite probability above. Promotion to wired-in pending: N≥200 archetype-tagged settled matches with closing-line capture + Brier delta ≥+0.005 vs unwired baseline + no 5pp-bucket regression. Re-evaluate post-Roland Garros (2026-06-09).

Composite adjustments (live)

AdjustmentAnna KalinskayaEmma NavarroNet
Match fatigue (14d load) -2.00pp (load 4.0) -1.65pp (load 3.3) -0.35pp

Live adjustments flowed into the headline composite probability above. Surface transition gated to documented poor-history (>15% win-rate drop in first 3 surface-change matches). Fatigue: 14-day load weighted by best-of (BO5=2.0, BO3=1.0), capped ±3pp. Tennis-betting-expert RG R1 audit 2026-05-24.

Composite signal weights

SignalWeight
surface_elo 0.35
recent_form 0.18
h2h_matrix 0.16
surface_transition 0.11
match_simulator 0.10
tournament_fatigue 0.10
Sum 1.00

Locked weights per tennis-betting-expert composite design 2026-04-26. Signals flagged low_data are excluded; remaining weights renormalize proportionally. h2h overweighting noted in audit; will be revisited with a dedicated calibration pass after Roland Garros.

Live trajectory (157 ticks)

Time Set Game Score Server P(Anna Kalinskaya) P(Emma Navarro) Exp games Source
02:39:28 2 4 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '15']} b 0.107 0.893 25.8 feed
02:39:58 2 4 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '30']} b 0.102 0.898 25.7 feed
02:40:29 2 4 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '40']} b 0.099 0.901 25.8 feed
02:41:00 2 4 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '40']} b 0.103 0.896 25.8 feed
02:41:30 2 4 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']} b 0.103 0.897 25.8 feed
02:42:01 2 4 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 3], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['A', '40']} b 0.100 0.900 25.8 feed
02:42:32 2 5 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.070 0.930 26.1 feed
02:43:02 2 5 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.060 0.940 26.1 feed
02:43:33 2 5 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.070 0.930 26.1 feed
02:44:03 2 5 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.068 0.932 26.2 feed
02:44:34 2 5 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.070 0.930 26.0 feed
02:45:04 2 5 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']} b 0.069 0.931 26.0 feed
02:45:35 2 5 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '15']} b 0.063 0.937 26.2 feed
02:46:06 2 5 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '30']} b 0.054 0.946 26.0 feed
02:46:36 2 5 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '30']} b 0.062 0.938 26.1 feed
02:47:07 2 6 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.013 0.987 26.3 feed
02:47:37 2 6 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.021 0.979 26.2 feed
02:48:08 2 6 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '15']} b 0.025 0.976 26.2 feed
02:48:39 2 6 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '30']} b 0.018 0.982 26.2 feed
02:49:09 2 6 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '40']} b 0.021 0.979 26.2 feed
02:49:40 2 6 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [1, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '40']} b 0.018 0.982 26.2 feed
02:50:11 2 7 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.069 0.931 28.0 feed
02:50:41 2 7 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.059 0.941 27.9 feed
02:51:12 2 7 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.068 0.932 28.2 feed
02:51:42 2 7 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.072 0.928 28.0 feed
02:52:13 2 7 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '0']} b 0.068 0.932 28.1 feed
02:52:44 2 7 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '0']} b 0.075 0.925 28.1 feed
02:53:14 2 7 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '0']} b 0.069 0.931 28.2 feed
02:53:45 2 7 {'sets': [[0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '15']} b 0.067 0.933 28.1 feed
02:54:15 3 8 {'sets': [[0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [2, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['12', '6']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed

Showing last 30 of 157 ticks.

Tennis variance: best-of-3 single-match outcomes are noisy. Composite + trajectory shown for transparency, not as a tout. Use closing-line comparison (vs Pinnacle anchor above) as the canonical edge metric.