Qinwen Zheng vs Elena Rybakina

hard wta grand_slam best of 3 tennis_wta_us_open · commence 2026-09-09 15:30:00+00:00 · completed winner: b

P(Qinwen Zheng) = 0.000  |  P(Elena Rybakina) = 1.000
live composite (last tick)

Sharp anchor — Pinnacle pre-match

Pinnacle P(Qinwen Zheng) 0.265
Pinnacle P(Elena Rybakina) 0.735
n_books observed 1 live

Sharp anchor sourced via OddsAPI event_id lookup → Pinnacle no-vig computation. (Field-id mismatch fix shipped 2026-05-02 — pinnacle capture is now the source of truth for pre-match anchoring.)

Surface ELO radar

Surface Qinwen ZhengElena Rybakina Diff (a−b)
hard 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
clay 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
grass 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
indoor 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
overall 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0

Per-surface ELO from 24h-cached global rater. Number-in-parens = matches contributing to that rating.

Style matchup (display-only · v0 priors · NOT in headline)

Player Archetype n matches Hold % Aces / match
Qinwen Zheng big_server 107 0.759 7.4
Elena Rybakina big_server 164 0.787 6.9

Matchup adjustment: +0.00pp toward Elena Rybakina on hard.

v0 sharp priors per tennis-betting-expert lock 2026-05-02. Display-only — NOT blended into the headline composite probability above. Promotion to wired-in pending: N≥200 archetype-tagged settled matches with closing-line capture + Brier delta ≥+0.005 vs unwired baseline + no 5pp-bucket regression. Re-evaluate post-Roland Garros (2026-06-09).

Composite adjustments (live)

AdjustmentQinwen ZhengElena RybakinaNet
Match fatigue (14d load) -3.00pp (load 6.3) -2.50pp (load 5.0) -0.50pp

Live adjustments flowed into the headline composite probability above. Surface transition gated to documented poor-history (>15% win-rate drop in first 3 surface-change matches). Fatigue: 14-day load weighted by best-of (BO5=2.0, BO3=1.0), capped ±3pp. Tennis-betting-expert RG R1 audit 2026-05-24.

Composite signal weights

SignalWeight
surface_elo 0.35
recent_form 0.18
h2h_matrix 0.16
surface_transition 0.11
match_simulator 0.10
tournament_fatigue 0.10
Sum 1.00

Locked weights per tennis-betting-expert composite design 2026-04-26. Signals flagged low_data are excluded; remaining weights renormalize proportionally. h2h overweighting noted in audit; will be revisited with a dedicated calibration pass after Roland Garros.

Live trajectory (200 ticks)

Time Set Game Score Server P(Qinwen Zheng) P(Elena Rybakina) Exp games Source
17:50:40 3 8 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '30']} b 0.496 0.504 33.8 feed
17:51:10 3 8 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']} b 0.503 0.497 33.8 feed
17:51:41 3 8 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['A', '40']} b 0.505 0.495 33.8 feed
17:52:11 3 8 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 4], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['A', '40']} b 0.509 0.491 33.8 feed
17:52:42 3 9 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.432 0.568 34.8 feed
17:53:12 3 9 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.429 0.571 34.8 feed
17:54:09 3 9 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.429 0.571 34.7 feed
17:54:39 3 9 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.434 0.566 34.8 feed
17:55:10 3 9 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '0']} b 0.405 0.595 34.8 feed
17:55:41 3 9 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '0']} b 0.408 0.592 34.8 feed
17:56:11 3 9 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '15']} b 0.422 0.578 34.8 feed
17:56:42 3 9 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 5], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '15']} b 0.430 0.570 34.8 feed
17:57:12 4 10 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '11']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed
18:17:12 4 10 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '11']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed
18:18:12 4 10 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '11']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed
18:19:12 4 10 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '11']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed
18:20:12 4 10 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '11']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed
18:21:12 4 10 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '11']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed
18:22:12 4 10 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '11']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed
18:23:12 4 10 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '11']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed
18:24:38 4 10 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '11']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed
18:25:38 4 10 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '11']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed
18:26:38 4 10 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '11']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed
18:27:39 4 10 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '11']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed
18:28:39 4 10 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '11']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed
18:29:39 4 10 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '11']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed
18:30:39 4 10 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '11']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed
18:31:39 4 10 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '11']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed
18:32:39 4 10 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '11']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed
18:33:39 4 10 {'sets': [[6, 0], [0, 6], [0, 6]], 'current_set_games': [4, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '11']} b 0.000 1.000 0.0 feed

Showing last 30 of 200 ticks.

Tennis variance: best-of-3 single-match outcomes are noisy. Composite + trajectory shown for transparency, not as a tout. Use closing-line comparison (vs Pinnacle anchor above) as the canonical edge metric.