Alexander Zverev vs Luciano Darderi

hard atp grand_slam best of 5 tennis_atp_us_open · commence 2026-09-08 00:25:00+00:00 · completed winner: a

P(Alexander Zverev) = 1.000  |  P(Luciano Darderi) = 0.000
live composite (last tick)

BO5 — elevated retirement risk

Best-of-5 matches (ATP men's Slams) historically retire at a materially higher rate than best-of-3. Per-player retirement frequency over their last 30 matches:
Alexander Zverev: 0/30 (0.0%)
Luciano Darderi: 0/30 (0.0%)

Sharp anchor — Pinnacle pre-match

Pinnacle P(Alexander Zverev) 0.875
Pinnacle P(Luciano Darderi) 0.125
n_books observed 1 live

Sharp anchor sourced via OddsAPI event_id lookup → Pinnacle no-vig computation. (Field-id mismatch fix shipped 2026-05-02 — pinnacle capture is now the source of truth for pre-match anchoring.)

Surface ELO radar

Surface Alexander ZverevLuciano Darderi Diff (a−b)
hard 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
clay 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
grass 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
indoor 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0
overall 1500 (0) 1500 (0) +0

Per-surface ELO from 24h-cached global rater. Number-in-parens = matches contributing to that rating.

Style matchup (display-only · v0 priors · NOT in headline)

Player Archetype n matches Hold % Aces / match
Alexander Zverev all_court 196 0.865 9.9
Luciano Darderi all_court 15 0.737 6.2

Matchup adjustment: +0.00pp toward Luciano Darderi on hard.

v0 sharp priors per tennis-betting-expert lock 2026-05-02. Display-only — NOT blended into the headline composite probability above. Promotion to wired-in pending: N≥200 archetype-tagged settled matches with closing-line capture + Brier delta ≥+0.005 vs unwired baseline + no 5pp-bucket regression. Re-evaluate post-Roland Garros (2026-06-09).

Composite adjustments (live)

AdjustmentAlexander ZverevLuciano DarderiNet
Match fatigue (14d load) -2.65pp (load 5.3) -2.50pp (load 5.0) -0.15pp

Live adjustments flowed into the headline composite probability above. Surface transition gated to documented poor-history (>15% win-rate drop in first 3 surface-change matches). Fatigue: 14-day load weighted by best-of (BO5=2.0, BO3=1.0), capped ±3pp. Tennis-betting-expert RG R1 audit 2026-05-24.

Composite signal weights

SignalWeight
surface_elo 0.35
recent_form 0.18
h2h_matrix 0.16
surface_transition 0.11
match_simulator 0.10
tournament_fatigue 0.10
Sum 1.00

Locked weights per tennis-betting-expert composite design 2026-04-26. Signals flagged low_data are excluded; remaining weights renormalize proportionally. h2h overweighting noted in audit; will be revisited with a dedicated calibration pass after Roland Garros.

Live trajectory (200 ticks)

Time Set Game Score Server P(Alexander Zverev) P(Luciano Darderi) Exp games Source
03:32:21 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.849 0.151 45.3 feed
03:32:52 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.856 0.144 45.1 feed
03:33:23 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.868 0.132 45.0 feed
03:33:54 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '15']} b 0.851 0.149 45.2 feed
03:34:25 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '15']} b 0.848 0.152 45.0 feed
03:34:55 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '15']} b 0.849 0.151 45.8 feed
03:35:26 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '15']} b 0.862 0.138 45.0 feed
03:35:56 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '30']} b 0.865 0.135 45.0 feed
03:36:28 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['15', '40']} b 0.863 0.137 44.9 feed
03:36:58 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['30', '40']} b 0.864 0.136 45.0 feed
03:37:29 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']} b 0.863 0.137 44.8 feed
03:37:59 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']} b 0.848 0.152 45.1 feed
03:38:30 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', '40']} b 0.871 0.129 44.8 feed
03:39:00 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', 'A']} b 0.860 0.140 45.1 feed
03:39:31 3 11 {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [5, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['40', 'A']} b 0.861 0.139 45.1 feed
03:40:01 3 12 {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.872 0.128 45.0 feed
03:40:32 3 12 {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['0', '0']} b 0.871 0.129 45.3 feed
03:41:03 3 12 {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['1', '0']} b 0.877 0.123 45.0 feed
03:41:53 3 12 {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['1', '1']} b 0.867 0.133 45.4 feed
03:42:50 3 12 {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['2', '2']} b 0.867 0.133 45.0 feed
03:43:21 3 12 {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['2', '2']} b 0.860 0.140 45.4 feed
03:43:51 3 12 {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['2', '3']} b 0.866 0.134 45.5 feed
03:44:22 3 12 {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['2', '3']} b 0.863 0.137 45.2 feed
03:44:52 3 12 {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['2', '4']} b 0.867 0.133 45.3 feed
03:45:23 3 12 {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['2', '4']} b 0.886 0.114 44.8 feed
03:45:53 3 12 {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['2', '5']} b 0.871 0.129 45.4 feed
03:46:24 3 12 {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['3', '5']} b 0.873 0.127 45.2 feed
03:46:55 3 12 {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['3', '5']} b 0.879 0.121 45.0 feed
03:47:26 3 12 {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [6, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['3', '6']} b 0.876 0.124 45.2 feed
03:47:57 4 13 {'sets': [[6, 0], [6, 0], [6, 0]], 'current_set_games': [7, 6], 'sets_won_synthetic': True, 'point_score': ['10', '19']} b 1.000 0.000 0.0 feed

Showing last 30 of 200 ticks.

Tennis variance: best-of-3 single-match outcomes are noisy. Composite + trajectory shown for transparency, not as a tout. Use closing-line comparison (vs Pinnacle anchor above) as the canonical edge metric.